https://www.andrewcshaver.com/research daily 0.75 2018-02-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1519398764487-W2Y0FII4B77MCJ3T9LIX/ad3.png Research - The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: New Evidence from Iraq, w/ Jacob Shapiro. (Forthcoming in the Journal of Conflict Resolution.)   https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518287207121-GPLTYZOBEFO2CSZI2ZWF/AfghanistanElections1.png Research - Afghanistan Elections and Taliban Violence, w/ Luke Condra, James Long, and Austin Wright. (Invited for revision by the American Economic Review.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1519768710790-Z959H4O78Y6OOODRG93S/Afghanistan_Cas.png Research - Civilian Abuse and Wartime Informing, w/ Luke Condra, Jacob Shapiro, and Austin Wright. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1519837747799-KP9LG8I8VQ3MVDW5KQWF/ICT.png Research - Information and Communication Technologies, Wartime Informing, and Consequences for Substate Conflict. (Invited for revision by International Studies Quarterly.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1519838193759-H4L5XPTSOPED843LR6F4/Refugees.png Research - Do Refugees Spread Conflict? w/ Yang-Yang Zhou. (Invited for revision by the Journal of Politics.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1519839917756-RK57C4Z8IMMJBW4N0JSB/Unemployment.png Research - Employment Status and Support for Wartime Violence: Evidence from the Iraq War. https://www.andrewcshaver.com/home-2 daily 0.75 2018-02-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52a74d9ae4b0253945d2aee9/1535394867157-MTQAOAQPKWQ68DDY1HTW/tumblr_mn8b8sLRb61rkz363o1_1280.jpg Copy of Home https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52a74d9ae4b0253945d2aee9/1535394848185-CGDDU4QCIRSO4U1270H3/image-asset.jpeg Copy of Home https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518145589305-LHHJNF22QUF6HHHAHD3K/A67A6045.jpg Copy of Home https://www.andrewcshaver.com/home daily 1.0 2025-06-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1588866271137-ETXRBEB69IY9LCXM4JCO/encina_pic.jpg Home https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518148272624-PIFDOUB8OGACZIO8IC4B/KAI_2715.jpg Home https://www.andrewcshaver.com/research-civilians-old daily 0.75 2018-03-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1519398764487-W2Y0FII4B77MCJ3T9LIX/ad3.png Research, Civilians - The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: New Evidence from Iraq   w/ Jacob Shapiro; forthcoming in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1519768710790-Z959H4O78Y6OOODRG93S/Afghanistan_Cas.png Research, Civilians - Civilian Abuse and Wartime Informing. w/ Luke Condra, Jacob Shapiro, and Austin Wright; working paper. https://www.andrewcshaver.com/research-micro daily 0.75 2018-11-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520400955228-4J45UD9BCU6VVE8OXSJ2/predictable_insurgencies.png Research-Micro https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520359980016-ZC4HVY0HRY0MAE4MWNQD/AfghanistanElections1.png Research-Micro Daily counts of indirect fire attacks through the Afghanistan War. Vertical dotted lines indicate election days. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520360357715-0JWWYQN7SBJ1QW1WU35I/ICT.png Research-Micro Calls by type placed to a "tips"hotline operated by British forces in southern Iraq during the Iraq War. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520400482314-QIKWRCBJLC0OB0DKXSTH/insurgent_learning.png Research-Micro https://www.andrewcshaver.com/research-terrain daily 0.75 2020-05-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520369062271-KUATRR8PXF9OMV5TACL3/PLOS.png Research-Terrain Statistical results showing that absolute temperature level is significantly and positively correlated with incidence of conflict around the world. This relationship manifests in both non-agricultural and agricultural sample provinces. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520369925551-KW2SKDCSCOCYKUF3D308/Terrain_FARC.png Research-Terrain Terrain ruggedness and the location of Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia bases in 1964 (left) and 1995 (right). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520368430942-4DZXHRLZYZ48IAHW7UJM/Refugees.png Research-Terrain Statistical results showing that, contrary to population belief, those subnational areas of the world that receive refugee communities experience a reduction in their subsequent conflict likelihood. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1590692703177-E6J567CBC7UX32K5LJ86/ref_prod.png Research-Terrain https://www.andrewcshaver.com/research-civilians daily 0.75 2018-03-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520357203877-C0NHXHPTZ8OF9AH4KGG2/ad2.png Research-Civilians An advertisement for Iraq's 130 "tips" hotline, which reads "For their sake, and for the sake of Iraq, keep your eyes open" (personal translation). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520357714580-UED8UKLVJRJ18BIK9N74/Afghanistan_Cas.png Research-Civilians Variation of nighttime luminosity across Afghan districts. Darker red indicates more variation. https://www.andrewcshaver.com/research-psych daily 0.75 2018-10-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520363619325-VKV7U2V83BWG1ZRGV3T2/Sadr.png Research-Psych Violence intensifies significantly in Iraq's Sadr City as American forces construct a security wall through the city. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520364756288-T87A4IK02DNJOJHKLD10/Temperature.png Research-Psych This figure contrasts estimated mean attack counts across types of insurgent violence as a function of mean daily temperatures in Baghdad and Basrah using data for most days of the Iraq War (with 95% Confidence Intervals). Consistent with findings from criminology and psychology, the least organizationally constrained attacks, those primarily involving pistols and rifles over which individual combatants exercise the greatest discretion, tend to increase in temperature, then turn negative beyond a certain threshold. The most organizationally constrained attacks–for instance, car and suicide bombings–show little relationship with temperature. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1520362808808-7SDJGR9OZ5R205MFL6M9/Unemployment.png Research-Psych Statistical results showing that Baghdad citizens varied little in their opposition to Coalition presence as a function of their employment status. Yet, they differed significantly in their support for the use of violence. https://www.andrewcshaver.com/alumni daily 0.75 2018-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518629922552-AB810Y1CP0PG6NOZE9H3/A67A6085.jpg Alumni - Tyler Baum   Tyler is currently a BA candidate in Government and Middle Eastern Studies at Dartmouth College, with a focus on Arabic language, military strategy, and counterterrorism in the Levant. In addition to his position in the Political Violence Lab, he is also an Executive Board Member for Dartmouth Feeding Neighbors, an organization focused on hunger alleviation in the Upper Valley, and the Vice President of the College Republicans chapter. Outside of counterterrorism and political violence, he is also interested in rural economic development and enjoys playing ice hockey, skiing, and traveling to U.S. national parks. After college, Tyler plans to serve in the United States Navy.   https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1519839511879-FBL479CW4UOSOOJE5VYT/Alex_2.png Alumni - Alex Rounaghi Alex is a sophomore studying government, history, and public policy, with a particular focus on the Middle East. Outside of the Political Violence lab, he is involved with College Democrats, the Dartmouth Law Journal, and the Ethics Institute's Supreme Court Seminar. Alex also served as a Judicial Intern for Judge John Mott of the D.C. Superior Court through the Rockefeller Center’s First Year Fellows program. Alex loves going to the beach (during breaks), hiking, and running. After graduating Dartmouth, he hopes to find exciting ways to pursue his interests in law and national security. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518240849816-VZ6495OE6UNYZ6B83FS4/A67A6090.jpg Alumni - Michael Nachman Michael is an undergraduate student at Dartmouth College in the Class of 2021. Michael is a prospective government major with interests in government, economics, law and public policy. His notable accomplishment as a researcher is recognition as a Regeneron Science Talent Search Top 300 Scholar for his work studying US political primary election trends. He has also earned recognition at the Long Island Science and Engineering Fair, New York State Science and Engineering Fair and the New York State Archives Research Competition for studies related to political science and economics. Michael’s team was also the New York State Champion of the 2017 National Economics Challenge. On campus, Michael works as an Associate Editor for the Dartmouth Law Journal, a Grader for Professor Ferwerda of the Dartmouth Government Department, and as a Research Assistant to Dr. Andrew Shaver at the Dickey Center for International Understanding.   https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518241086382-7DJHN87VVVSS2VTNBQX4/A67A6094.jpg Alumni - Jack Jacobs Jack is an undergraduate student at Dartmouth College. He serves as an associate editor of the Dartmouth Law Journal and is an in-residency member of the Dickey Center for International Understanding’s Great Issues Scholars program. He is also a resident of the Global Village Living Learning Community. Jack plans to double major in Environmental Studies and Government, with a minor in International Studies. He is mostly interested in environmental policy and its connection to foreign affairs.   https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1524240414658-OB3LKS9JL0DBNU91ZHS3/Karina.jpg Alumni - Karina Martinez Karina Martinez is a junior from Tucson, Arizona. In high school, she was a part of her school’s student council, debate team, Chinese language competition team, and Science Olympiad team. At Dartmouth, Karina is a Government and Chinese double major. She is involved with World Outlook: Dartmouth’s Undergraduate International Affairs Journal, Cannan Club — a group of student-athletes that assists with teaching PE classes at an elementary school in Canaan, the Summer Enrichment program at Dartmouth (SEAD), and the Dartmouth Women’s Rugby Team. She is passionate about Chinese language and international relations, and she plans to pursue a masters degree after graduation.   https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518240952579-V4M4Y8F3QUWXS8AF2TBD/A67A6084.jpg Alumni - Nick Nobles Nick is a Freshman from Little Rock, Arkansas. Prior to Dartmouth, he spent 6 years in the United States Air Force as an aircraft mechanic. His interest in international affairs began when he was in middle school, where he would read the international section of the newspaper every morning before class. Nick plans on pursuing a degree in Government and hopes to work in public service after graduation. In his free time he enjoys hiking, traveling, going to the gym, and hanging out with friends.   https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518240902058-UMTH527Z42T5IAK32HX7/A67A6105.jpg Alumni - Amy Hu Amy Hu is currently an undergraduate at Dartmouth College. At Dartmouth, she intends to study government, economics, and environmental policy focusing on the intersection between economic factors, conflict, and sustainable development. She is from Atlanta, Georgia and graduated from Northview High School as an AP Scholar with Distinction. She attended the Governor’s School and placed 2nd nationally in the Exploravision competition as well as the Georgia Science and Engineering Fair for a project on optimizing carbonic acid neutralization to minimize costs for corporations. On campus, Amy conducts research with Dr. Andrew Shaver, leads the Hackdartmouth Design team and tutors with Tutor Clearinghouse. She is involved with the Women in Science Program and is a Great Issues Scholar at the Dickey Center for International Understanding.   https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1518241038042-0KO58F2BH7DR1FDM9OTN/A67A6087.jpg Alumni - Nick Woo Nicholas Woo '20 hails from Seattle, Washington where he grew up in a Cantonese-speaking household, studied Mandarin throughout Elementary school, French in High School, and continues to study French in addition to Diné (Navajo) since coming to Dartmouth. Nicholas graduated from University Prep with honors as a National Merit Commended Scholar, AP Scholar with Honor, recipient of the Société Honoraire de Français and Washington State Honors Award. Here at Dartmouth, Nicholas is a Native American Studies and Government Double Major, and Sophomore Research Scholar. His goal is to promote international understanding, particularly in advancing indigenous rights, sovereignty, and affairs in a “post”-colonial international order that has systemically branded Native peoples as insurgent groups or displaced dependents. On campus, Nicholas is involved with the Dartmouth Law Journal, Dartmouth Political Times, PRIDE Programming Committee, Asian Pacific American Heritage Month (APAHM) Programming Committee, Dartmouth College Gospel Choir, and the Dartmouth Outing Club (DOC). After graduation, Nicholas plans to enlist with the Peace Corps before attending law school or IR graduate school. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1534110767661-NBOHLQ58NIR0BTLTAQJ7/A67A8561.jpg Alumni https://www.andrewcshaver.com/drones daily 0.75 2018-08-16 https://www.andrewcshaver.com/special-assistant daily 0.75 2019-01-10 https://www.andrewcshaver.com/conflict-exposure daily 0.75 2018-08-13 https://www.andrewcshaver.com/threat-of-terrorism daily 0.75 2018-08-13 https://www.andrewcshaver.com/data-science-of-war daily 0.75 2018-08-13 https://www.andrewcshaver.com/media-bias daily 0.75 2018-08-13 https://www.andrewcshaver.com/coin-learning daily 0.75 2018-08-13 https://www.andrewcshaver.com/climate-and-conflict daily 0.75 2024-10-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/df80ea4b-2ae7-47b7-a854-d68f7e4bddca/temp_response_revised_fig_2.png Climate and Conflict https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/8d2c11f5-c012-42fe-a175-ce292ea92354/temp_dev_iq_appendix_revision.png Climate and Conflict https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/a26f6ea8-a935-484f-87a6-f1b845162aa3/gam_bins+%281%29.png Climate and Conflict https://www.andrewcshaver.com/forcible-displacement daily 0.75 2025-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/1d72704e-6077-42b0-8a66-ef4431f73a10/returns_vs_outflows+%281%29.png Forcible Displacement https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/cb09bbea-81e0-44db-91ad-9c79ad599e1f/Screen+Shot+2022-09-26+at+4.40.26+PM.png Forcible Displacement https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/f91e4903-db25-4f8c-9c46-9ca917d9c817/ZetasAndrSquared.png Forcible Displacement https://www.andrewcshaver.com/mediareporting daily 0.75 2024-05-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/c31f98e3-2c01-4fc2-a3a5-8736d480e2d5/adfontes_partisan_AC+%281%29.jpeg Media Reporting https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/4ab90cf0-824d-4a94-9a95-59cdc890d910/interreality_plots+%282%29.png Media Reporting https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a7d0ffaa9db09345b7ef6ba/17f8d62f-03e4-45c1-8e7e-2e7804330c7e/general_comparisons+%282%29.png Media Reporting https://www.andrewcshaver.com/home-alt-bedford daily 0.75 2025-05-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52a74d9ae4b0253945d2aee9/1390500612440-PGQSIY8KL9F7T5VIXQLO/chambers-2.jpg Home Alt A better world Starts with a choice Contact Us https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52a74d9ae4b0253945d2aee9/1390500503574-5BAPXZO9U06UV61P49UO/chambers1.jpg Home Alt Sustainability Starts with you Join Us https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52a74d9ae4b0253945d2aee9/1390500933384-LII4SRIPHFYOUFX0UCXC/chambers-4.jpg Home Alt A better world Starts with a choice Join Us https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52a74d9ae4b0253945d2aee9/1390504287124-HQ8GNX1JCE22V047MSQ9/chambers-8.jpg Home Alt Preserve Nature Join Us