Research Portfolio — Forcible displacement*
*Select projects; see CV for complete list.
A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been overlooked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil conflict at the subnational level, we find no evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict, prolongs existing conflict, or raises the number of violent events or casualties. Furthermore, we explore conditions where provinces are likely to experience substantively large decreases in conflict risk due to increased development. Analysis examining nighttime lights as a measure of development, coupled with expert interviews, support our claim. To address the possibility of selection bias, we use placebo tests and matching. Our research challenges assertions that refugees are security risks. Instead, we show that in many cases, hosting refugees can encourage local development and even conflict reduction.
The Causes and Consequences of Refugee Flows: A Contemporary Re-Analysis. No. 29. Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, 2022. Accepted at the American Political Science Review. (w/ Krick, B., Blancaflor, J., Liu, X., Samara, G., Ku, S., Hu, S., Carreon, M., Lim, T., Raps, R., Velasquez, A., Angelo, J., de Melo, S. & Zuo, Z.)
The world faces a forcible displacement crisis. Tens of millions of individuals have been forced across international boundaries worldwide. The causes and consequences of refugee flows are, therefore, the subjects of significant social science inquiry. Unfortunately, historical lack of reliable data on i) actual refugee flows and ii) country-specific data reporting timelines has significantly limited empirical inferences on these topics. Using data newly released by the United Nations on annual dyadic flows and country-specific data coverage periods, we replicate twenty-eight articles on these topics. Given additional concerns about external validity, we extend thirteen of these. We identify factors consistently associated with flows across international boundaries while highlighting significant inconsistencies between other previously reported results. Generally, we find that previously reported effects on security conditions are attenuated, suggesting that the literature's predominant focus on refugees as sources of violent instability is overstated.
Civil War Violence and Refugee Outflows. No. 25. Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, 2021. (w/ Fearon, J.)
Conflict forces millions of individuals from their homes each year. Using a simple structural model and new refugee data, we produce the first set of estimates relating outflows to annual conflict magnitudes. The theory underlying the structural model implies that standard panel data approaches will underestimate the impact of conflict violence, by differencing out the effect of prior and expected levels of violence on the decisions to flee. We estimate that whereas a shock that doubles conflict deaths in one year increases outflows in that year by 40% on average, doubling conflict deaths in all years increases annual outflows by 100%. We further estimate an average of 30 refugees per conflict death (median 18), with higher rates for conflicts closer to an OECD country and possibly for ethnic wars and in lower income countries. The analysis illustrates a broader methodological point: It can be hazardous to try to identify a causal effect using shocks to a presumed causal factor if the outcome variable is the result of decisions based not only on shocks but also on levels.
The Determinants of Displacement and Return: A Micro-Founded Global Analysis. (w/ Krick, B., Zuniga, T., Bauer-Seeley, K., Caldarelli, I., Dusanapudi, D., Infante, A., Liow, A., & Lunar, Y.) [IN PROGRESS]
A large body of scholarship explores the determinants of forcible displacement and, separately, their protracted displacement. In this project, we reconsider these relationships, making both theoretical and empirical contributions. On the former, we propose a shift from the oft-referenced push-pull framework to one that additionally accounts directly for both restrictions on movement as well as diversionary flows. Restrictions on individuals seeking to flee and, separately, on individuals seeking to return home are significant yet largely absent from existing academic research. For instance, while much academic and policy focus concerns the potential effects of a changing global climate on displacement, our work explores the potential immobilizing effects of severe weather and natural disasters in preventing (rather than prompting) international flows. On the latter, we 1) use newly released data on refugee flows to analyze the determinants of displacement in a manner heretofore not possible; and 2) develop various fine-grained measures derived from satellite imagery and other data sources to carry out macro-empirical testing using variables with precise micro-foundations.